Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, cities have experienced restrictions and transformations in their functioning. Particularly, the distances people travel have changed whether due to citizens determination or to the measures imposed by governments.
Steer conducted a simple perception survey on the mobility changes expected by inhabitants of Santiago de Chile, Chile; Barranquilla, Bogota, Cali, and Medellin, Colombia; and Mexico City, Merida, San Luis Potosi, and Tijuana, México. The results show that telecommuting, fear of infection, and safety will affect the way people move in these cities, leading to potential transformations in the modal share. Those transformations will be seen in the coming months.
The first big change identified is that workers and students stopped commuting to their places of work or study due to the pandemic. In Colombia, this percentage was the lowest among the countries studied, being 48% of the population taking part in the survey, while in Chile and Mexico, it rose to 60% and 85%, respectively. These differences might be due to communication campaigns and actions taken by national and local governments to discourage unnecessary travels and to promote, whenever possible, staying at home, as well as other socioeconomic characteristics of the country and its population, showing the transformation lived in the last period.
It was found that mobility will also be affected by changes in the labor market; around a third of the workers surveyed stated that they will not work the same jobs as they did before the pandemic or that they are still uncertain about this. This proportion is similar in the three countries and is consistent with the findings of the Great Integrated Survey of Households (GEIH, Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares) Labor market in Colombia1 which, along with other local studies, shows an increase in the unemployment rate of the country. Additionally, among 70% and 80% of the population surveyed in each country expects the telecommuting or virtual education modalities to continue in the “new normal”. This result considers the expectations of every sector included in the analysis, their socioeconomic level, and gender, and may differ from what will eventually happen.
People were asked about how they traveled before quarantines and how they might travel in the new normal. It was found that people would stop considering certain transportation modes to travel, where public transportation is the most affected mode with a decreased preference among 6% and 35%, and that they would keep their routine travel schedules since less than 10% of people expect to modify their travel times.
In Chile, the first highlight is a significant decrease in mixed-mode travels (more than one mode). Particularly, travels combining two or more modes go from 47% of the total before the pandemic to the 17% after quarantine. This is consistent with a preference for direct travels and the perception that these are less risky. Public transportation, taxis, apps like Uber/Cabify, and shared taxis stand out as the transportation modes that will be more negatively impacted by the new conditions. However, there would be an increase in people driving their own cars and riding the bicycle.
In Colombia, people surveyed expect an important decrease in the use of public transportation as 14% of those surveyed in Barranquilla, 18% in Bogota, 9% in Cali, and 10% in Medellin stop considering it an option to travel. The opposite case occurs for private transportation modes, where people show a preference for the use of the bicycle, followed in a lower proportion for driving their own cars, using the motorcycle, carpooling, and walking. These changes are similar by gender and age. However, women showed more willingness to drive their own cars.
Similar to both countries above, public transportation stops being considered an option for commuting to places of work or study in Mexico in percentages that range from 6% to 12% as follows: 11% in Mexico City, 12% in Merida, 7% in San Luis Potosi, and 6% in Tijuana. Like in the cases above, increased use of private transportation modes is expected, mainly riding the bicycle, followed by driving a car, riding a motorcycle, and using on-demand transportation apps.
However, people identify barriers for the use of active modes. In the case of bicycle use, the barriers identified include the risk of traffic collisions, crime, fear of infection, and travel distance.
Finally, there were findings regarding the potential purchase of a car, motorcycle, or bicycle. The likelihood of buying a car within the next six months varies between 5% and 35% among those surveyed depending on the type of vehicle and the socioeconomic level. In a disaggregated way, the results show that households with a high socioeconomic level have a higher likelihood of buying a car and a lower likelihood of buying a motorcycle. All socioeconomic levels have a similar likelihood of purchasing a bicycle; nonetheless, for low socioeconomic level households, the likelihood of buying a bicycle is the same as that of buying a car. This finding is common among the three countries studied.
Considering all this information, it is possible to anticipate a mobility transformation in the cities analyzed driven by qualitative and quantitative changes in travels. This way, a significatively decreased use of transportation services (public transportation, apps like Uber/Cabify, taxi, and shared taxi) and an increased use of individual modes (car and bicycle) is expected. This is accompanied by less travels and more direct travels.
Information from each of the countries where the survey was conducted is presented individually below:
Mexico
As a result of the containment measures for the COVID-19 pandemic across the globe, people have experienced important transformations in the way they move in the cities to meet or satisfy their diverse needs in the last months.
At the beginning of this health emergency, Mexico had an important communication campaign to discourage unnecessary travels and to promote, whenever possible, staying at home. This generated changes in the way many people work and/or study, and they started doing these activities remotely. However, many people who need to travel continue getting exposed to a potential infection with the virus. Because of this, the expectation is that some people change the way they travel, at least during the coming months.
By the end of August 2020, Steer conducted a perception survey on the mobility changes expected by inhabitants of Mexico City, Merida, San Luis Potosi, and Tijuana, reaching a sample of 3,863 people surveyed. Using this tool, we managed to discover some of the factors -such as telecommuting and mode change- that will affect the way people will move in four cities in different regions, population sizes, and productive activity profile.
As a result of mobility restrictions, it was identified that 85% of the people surveyed stopped commuting to work partially or completely. In the last month, 65% of people surveyed stated that they worked or studied from their homes at least once.
In the “new normal”, once mobility restrictions are fully lifted, 79% of the people surveyed expect to be able to work or study from home. However, the pandemic will also have affected the productive and labor market, since 31% of people surveyed state that once mobility restrictions are lifted, they will not work the same jobs as they did before the pandemic.
The survey asked people how they commuted to places of work or study prior to mobility restrictions and how they expect to commute in the “new normal”. It was found that people expect to make some transportation changes, while only 7% of people contemplate modifying their commuting schedules. In that sense, an important decrease in the use of public transportation is expected, with reductions of 11% in Mexico City, 12% in Merida, 7% in San Luis Potosi, and 6% in Tijuana. In contrast, an increased use of private transportation modes is expected, where riding a bicycle stands out, followed by driving a car, riding a motorcycle, and using on-demand transportation apps.
When disaggregating these results by socioeconomic level, gender, and age, very small differences are noted. For instance, a higher reduction in the use of public transportation is expected for adults compared to young people. Additionally, bicycle use is expected to experience a slightly higher increase in men than in women, while its use is expected to increase in young people rather than in adults. Car use is also expected to change when analyzed in a disaggregated way: Its use increases more in the middle and high socioeconomic levels than in the low level. It increases more for women than for men, and it increases for people younger than 44 years old but decreases for those older than 45 years old.
The likelihood of buying a car, motorcycle, or bicycle within the next six months was studied among the people surveyed. On average, they have a 0.28 likelihood of buying a car, a 0.22 likelihood of buying a bicycle, and a 0.12 likelihood of buying a motorcycle. In a disaggregated way, it is noted that high socioeconomic level households have a higher likelihood of buying a car and a lower likelihood of buying a motorcycle. All socioeconomic levels have a similar likelihood of purchasing a bicycle. Nonetheless, for low socioeconomic level households, the likelihood of buying a bicycle is the same as that of buying a car.
Finally, the people surveyed identified that the car is the private transportation mode with a higher likelihood of purchase in the four cities, followed by the bicycle and the motorcycle. The highest likelihood of buying a car is observed in Tijuana, while the highest likelihood of buying a motorcycle is seen in Merida. The likelihood of buying a bicycle is the same in all the cities.
The findings anticipate that the “new normal” will imply a mobility transformation in the four cities studied. The way people travel and will travel in the future will be conditioned by urban economy dynamics, the way these dynamics can meet or satisfy the diverse needs of their inhabitants, and the characteristics of travelers. Nowadays, the mobility experience of a woman, a person with a low socioeconomic level, or an old person is often different form that of the average person. At Steer, we want to work hand in hand with the cities, getting ahead to prepare a better future for everyone since today.
Chile
This has not been different in Santiago. Consequently, a perception survey on mobility modifications in the Metropolitan Region was conducted. The sample consisted of 902 people. This study made it possible to discover the effects of telecommuting, fear of infection, and potential modal share transformations that will take place in the coming months in Santiago de Chile.
The first finding was that more than 60% of those surveyed experienced an impact on their commutes for work or study reasons and stopped said commutes completely or partially. Consistently, about 65% of those surveyed said to have telecommuted or studied virtually at least once during the last month, showing the transformation experienced in the last period. These results are consistent with other studies on the matter2.
Regarding the “new normal”, about 70% of the people surveyed expect to be able to work or study from home in the post-quarantine period. Moreover, almost 12% of people said that they will not work the same jobs as they did before the pandemic, which adds up to a 26% of people who are still uncertain about this. These changes in the labor market will also affect mobility in the city.
People were asked about how they traveled before quarantines and how they might travel after quarantine. The first highlight is a significant decrease in mixed-mode travels (more than one mode). Particularly, travels combining two or more modes go from 47% of the total before the pandemic, to the 17% after quarantine. This is consistent with a preference for direct travels and the perception that these are less risky.
Public transportation, taxis, apps like Uber/Cabify, and shared taxis stand out as the transportation modes that will be more negatively impacted by the new conditions. However, there would be an increase in people driving their own cars and riding the bicycle.
Analysis of these results by income level shows that reduced use of public transportation will occur more strongly in people with high incomes. Conversely, decreased use of apps like Uber/Cabify and the shared taxi has a more distinct effect on people with low and median incomes. No significant differences by gender or age are observed.
Finally, there were findings concerning the potential purchase of a car, motorcycle, or bicycle. Thus, the likelihood of buying a car within the next 6 months among the people surveyed is around 23%. When performing the same analysis for bicycle and motorcycle purchase, the likelihood is 19.4% and 4.8%, respectively. Particularly, men and people who already own a car show more willingness to buy another car. Contrarily, women and people who have a bicycle or no other kind of vehicle are more prone to buying a bicycle. The option of buying a motorcycle is predominant only among people who already own one.
Upon analysis by income level, on the one hand, it is seen that people with low and median incomes mainly consider buying a bicycle within the next six months. On the other hand, people with high and median incomes consider a car purchase as the most likely option.
Colombia
A simple perception survey on mobility changes expected by inhabitants of Barranquilla, Bogota, Cali, and Medellin, the main cities of Colombia, was conducted by Steer The results show that telecommuting, fear of infection, and safety are factors that will affect the way people move in these cities.
The first big change anticipated is identified among workers and students, where 80% of those surveyed3 expect the telecommuting or virtual education modalities to continue for at least four days a week in the “new normal”. This result considers the expectations of every sector included in the analysis, their socioeconomic level, and gender, and may differ from what will eventually happen.
From the workers surveyed, 48% stopped commuting due to the pandemic while 34% is uncertain about the continuation of their job. This is consistent with the findings of the Great Integrated Survey of Households (GEIH) Labor market4, where an increased unemployment rate is observed in Colombia.
With respect to the way of commuting to places of work and study, people expect to change their transportation mode, but not to modify their schedules. In this regard, an important decrease in the use of public transportation is expected, with reductions of 14% in Barranquilla, 18% in Bogota, 9% in Cali, and 10% in Medellin. The opposite occurs for private transportation modes, where riding a bicycle stands out, followed in a lower proportion by driving a car, riding a motorcycle, carpooling, and walking. These changes are similar by gender and age. Nevertheless, women showed more willingness to drive their own cars.
However, people identify barriers for the use of active modes. In the case of bicycle use, the barriers identified include the risk of traffic collisions, crime, fear of infection, and travel distance.
In the case of the car, its use is discouraged by not having a driving license, not knowing how to drive, use of the vehicle by a partner, or fear of infection.
On the other hand, the use of the motorcycle for commuting is discouraged by not having a driving license and the need to pay taxes (SOAT).
Finally, people were asked about their likelihood of buying a vehicle within the next six months5. In a disaggregated way, it is noted that high socioeconomic level households have a higher likelihood of buying a car and a lower likelihood of buying a motorcycle. Middle strata show a higher likelihood of buying a bicycle.
The bicycle is the transportation vehicle with a higher likelihood of purchase in all the cities surveyed, followed by the car.
For further information, please contact Jorge Chavez in Mexico, José Miguel de la Vega and/or Alex Mitrani in Chile and Ana Cruz in Colombia.
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