Is FY23 going to be another shock year?

Over 2 years ago, just as the pandemic began, I wrote an article about forecasting in uncertain times. The context of the article was what we had learnt about forecasting traffic on toll roads in India, having worked on over 100 toll roads across the country. The subsequent 2 years have probably been the hardest for anyone forecasting traffic or, for that matter, any other business metrics given the uncertainties around the pandemic and associated restrictions, which in turn have impacted economic activities. 

Overlaying this challenge are the pronounced effects of climate change now being witnessed around the world, with extreme heat waves in the UK and Europe and extremely erratic monsoon patterns in India being live and present examples. On the other end there is further tightening of interest rates and a high inflation environment that are going to have varied impacts across different geographies and market sectors. So, are we in for another shock year in the current financial year?

Arguably, the volatility we now face in our economic, labour, climate and mobility systems is now perhaps to be expected. So perhaps not a shock in FY23 but more and emerging new challenges to wrestle with. At Steer, we have continued to pool our thoughts across our global network on demand for mobility, sharing insight on patterns of recovery and influences on mobility. One thing that has continued to prove successful in advising our clients has been our work on scenarios. This technique has continued to bring new insights to the fore, test sensitivities and identify areas for further research. It has helped us to both sensitively frame our conclusions and communicate them ever more clearly to clients facing an increasingly uncertain and complex world.