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  3. Traffic and revenue forecasts for tolled express lanes on I-66 in Northern Virginia
Express Mobility Partners (Cintra, Meridiam, APG, and John Laing)

Traffic and revenue forecasts for tolled express lanes on I-66 in Northern Virginia

Virginia Department of Transportation (DOT) initiated a P3 project to deliver high occupancy tolled express lanes on I-66 outside the Capital Beltway in Northern Virginia to address congestion. Express Mobility Partners (EMP) was one of the bidders for this revenue-risk deal.

How we helped

Steer served as the traffic advisor to EMP. In this role, we developed a managed lane forecasting model to produce the traffic and revenue forecasts that were used in the plan of finance. Our model used observed behaviors of travelers from other operational managed lane projects to reflect the range of behaviors, including urgent situations. We presented our forecasts to the lenders, rating agencies and the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA).

Successes and outcomes

Our forecasts were used in EMP’s successful bid, and financial close for the project was reached in late 2017. The project is a great success for Virginia, with the private partner both delivering the $2.4 billion project and paying a substantial concession fee that includes an upfront payment over $500 million. In addition to the equity investment, the financing of the project involves Private Activity Bonds and a $1.2 billion TIFIA loan. Concession fees will be used to fund additional multimodal improvements in the corridor.

On
Contact an expert

David Cuneo

Director
[email protected]
Steer group

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